A new model for weekly rainfallÌý
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South Asian countries fall victim to extreme whether events often. High population density, poverty and lack of resources for recovery aggravate the situation. ÌýResearch shows that over the last 30-40 years, prediction of short term rainfall, particularly weekly rainfall has been difficult due to erratic variability and high volatility. |
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Thanuja studied the variability of weekly rainfall including extreme events, focusing on the south-west monsoon and the second inter-monsoonal periods in Sri Lanka. ÌýShe developed and validated aÌý Ìýmodel to forecast weekly rainfall in Colombo. ÌýHer research outcome is a novel long-range dependency model, whose performance is maintained over a wide range of forecasting lengths. |
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